Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Perofsky AC, Hansen C, Burstein R, Boyle S, Prentice R, Marshall C, Reinhart D, Capodanno B, Truong M, Schwabe-Fry K, Kuchta K, Pfau B, Acker Z, Lee J, Sibley TR, McDermot E, Rodriguez-Salas L, Stone J, Gamboa L, Han PD, Adler A, Waghmare A, Jackson ML, Famulare M, Shendure J, Bedford T, Chu HY, Englund JA, Starita LM, Viboud C. 2024. Nat Commun 15: 4164.
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perofsky-viral-rt-mobility.pdf
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perofsky-viral-rt-mobility-supp.pdf
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2

Abstract

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.