Richard Neher and I have compiled another report on recent patterns of seasonal influenza virus evolution with an eye toward projecting forward to the SH 2017 and the NH 2017-2018 flu seasons. All analyses are based on the nextflu platform.

This time, there’s little action in H1N1pdm, Vic and Yam, which are showing limited variation within their populations. However, there has arisen substantial variation within H3N2 viruses, wherein multiple competing clades are currently vying for success. The previously noticed 171K clade did indeed continue to dominate in the population, but there are now credible competitors arising as well. At this point, it’s difficult to perceive an obvious winner among these competing lineages, though 171K/121K and T131K/R142K are strong contenders.

I’ve generally really liked bioRxiv as venue for these sorts of “technical reports”. I’m treating these reports almost on par to a publication. Although there is no peer-review as the timescale doesn’t allow for it, they are still something that I base scientific reputation on.