Characterising the epidemic spread of influenza A/H3N2 within a city through phylogenetics

Müller NF, Wüthrich D, Goldman N, Sailer N, Saalfrank C, Brunner M, Noémi Augustin, Helena MB Seth-Smith, Hollenstein Y, Syedbasha M, Lang D, Neher RA, Dubuis O, Naegele M, Buser A, Nickel CH, Ritz N, Zeller A, Lang BM, Hadfield J, Bedford T, Battegay M, Schneider-Sliwa R, Egli A. 2020. bioRxiv: 2020.04.27.052225.

Abstract

Infecting large portions of the global population, seasonal influenza is a major burden on societies around the globe. While the global source sink dynamics of the different seasonal influenza viruses have been studied intensively, its local spread remains less clear. In order to improve our understanding of how influenza is transmitted on a city scale, we collected an extremely densely sampled set of influenza sequences alongside patient metadata. To do so, we sequenced influenza viruses isolated from patients of two different hospitals, as well as private practitioners in Basel, Switzerland during the 2016/2017 influenza season. The genetic sequences reveal that repeated introductions into the city drove the influenza season. We then reconstruct how the effective reproduction number changed over the course of the season. We find trends in transmission dynamics correlated positively with trends in temperature, but not relative humidity nor school holidays. Alongside the genetic sequence data that allows us to see how individual cases are connected, we gathered patient information, such as the age or household status. Zooming into the local transmission outbreaks suggests that the elderly were to a large extent infected within their own transmission network, while school children likely drove the spread within the remaining transmission network. These patterns will be valuable to plan interventions combating the spread of respiratory diseases within cities given that similar patterns are observed for other influenza seasons and cities.