Viruses, evolution and epidemiology



Trevor Bedford (@trvrb)

Sequencing to reconstruct pathogen spread

Epidemic process

Sample some individuals

Sequence and determine phylogeny

Sequence and determine phylogeny

Outline

  • Ebola spread in West Africa
  • Zika spread in the Americas

Ebola

Ebola epidemic in West Africa

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

with Gytis Dudas, Andrew Rambaut, Luiz Carvalho, Marc Suchard, Philippe Lemey,
and many others

Sequencing of 1610 Ebola virus genomes collected during the 2013-2016 West African epidemic

Phylogenetic reconstruction of evolution and spread

Tracking migration events

Factors influencing migration rates

Spatial structure at the country level

Substantial mixing at the regional level

Regional outbreaks due to multiple introductions

Zika

Zika's arrival and spread in the Americas

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

with Nuno Faria, Nick Loman, Oli Pybus, Luiz Alcantara, Ester Sabino, Josh Quick,
Alli Black, Ingra Morales, Julien Thézé, Marcio Nunes, Jacqueline de Jesus,
Marta Giovanetti, Moritz Kraemer, Sarah Hill and many others

Road trip through northeast Brazil to collect samples and sequence

Case reports and diagnostics suggest initiation in northeast Brazil

Phylogeny infers an origin in northeast Brazil

Genomic epidemiology of Zika in the US Virgin Islands

with Alli Black, Barney Potter, Gytis Dudas, Esther Ellis, Brett Ellis,
Kristian Andersen, Nathan Grubaugh, Leora Feldstein, and others
(and special thanks to Adam Geballe)

Preliminary analysis of 31 genomes shows multiple introductions to USVI

Important analyses, let's make them more rapid and more automated

nextstrain

Project to conduct real-time molecular epidemiology and evolutionary analysis of emerging epidemics


with Richard Neher, James Hadfield, Colin Megill,
Sidney Bell, Charlton Callender, Barney Potter,
and John Huddleston

nextstrain.org

Acknowledgements

Bedford Lab: Alli Black, Sidney Bell, Gytis Dudas, John Huddleston,
Barney Potter, James Hadfield, Louise Moncla

Influenza: WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network, Richard Neher, Colin Russell, Andrew Rambaut, Marc Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Steven Riley

Ebola: Gytis Dudas, Andrew Rambaut, Luiz Carvalho, Philippe Lemey, Marc Suchard, Andrew Tatem

Zika: Nick Loman, Nuno Faria, Oli Pybus, Josh Quick, Kristian Andersen, Nathan Grubaugh, Jason Ladner, Gustavo Palacios, Sharon Isern, Gytis Dudas, Alli Black, Barney Potter, Esther Ellis

Nextstrain: Richard Neher, James Hadfield, Colin Megill, Sidney Bell, Charlton Callender, Barney Potter, John Huddleston